So, did Twitter correctly predict this year’s Oscar winners?

Last week, we used a chunk of tweets about the Academy Awards to attempt to predict who would win the Oscars. Our main assumption was that the actors and film that generated the largest reach would be the ones to win. Based on that assumption, our Oscar winner predictions were:

  • Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld
  • Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush
  • Best Actress: Natalie Portman
  • Best Actor: Colin Firth
  • Best Picture: The King’s Speech

So, how did we do? Was our particular method of tweet analysis a winning one? Here are the actual winners (our predictions are in brackets, correct ones in green, wrong ones in red).

  • Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo [Hailee Steinfeld]
  • Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale [Geoffrey Rush]
  • Best Actress: Natalie Portman [Natalie Portman]
  • Best Actor: Colin Firth [Colin Firth]
  • Best Picture: The King’s Speech [The King’s Speech]

So, we did pretty well! We got the big three – best actor, actress and film. We missed the supporting actor and actress categories, but we used a different analysis method for those categories, so that might have something to do with. We’ll post a more detailed analysis of our Oscar data later this week, including a review of these predictions and explanation of our methodology. For now, we just wanted to give you the update. More soon!

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